Nowcast evidence

CPI nowcast evidence record

The latest model evaluated release by release using only information available before each official print. Prelaunch periods are reconstructed; forecasts published after launch are recorded live.

Evaluated releases: 36
Headline mean absolute error: 9 bp
Core mean absolute error: 8 bp
Release range: Jun 13, 2023 to Jul 14, 2026

The public evidence record uses one model version throughout. Every validated pre-release evaluation and miss remains visible.

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Official CPI printEvaluation basisHeadline CPI m/m SACore CPI m/m SA

June 2026 holdoutJul 14, 2026June 2026 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Jul 14, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input Jul 13, 2026

Official-0.42%

Nowcast-0.06%

36 bp high

Official-0.02%

Nowcast0.25%

26 bp high

Jun 10, 2026May 2026 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Jun 10, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input Jun 10, 2026

Official0.47%

Nowcast0.46%

2 bp low

Official0.21%

Nowcast0.25%

5 bp high

May 12, 2026April 2026 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff May 12, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input May 12, 2026

Official0.64%

Nowcast0.48%

16 bp low

Official0.38%

Nowcast0.22%

16 bp low

Apr 10, 2026March 2026 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Apr 10, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input Apr 10, 2026

Official0.87%

Nowcast0.85%

2 bp low

Official0.20%

Nowcast0.22%

2 bp high

Mar 11, 2026February 2026 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Mar 11, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input Mar 11, 2026

Official0.27%

Nowcast0.24%

3 bp low

Official0.22%

Nowcast0.23%

1 bp high

Feb 13, 2026January 2026 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Feb 13, 8:29 AM ESTLatest input Feb 12, 2026

Official0.17%

Nowcast0.13%

4 bp low

Official0.30%

Nowcast0.23%

6 bp low

Jan 13, 2026December 2025 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Jan 13, 8:29 AM ESTLatest input Jan 12, 2026

Official0.30%

Nowcast0.20%

9 bp low

Official0.23%

Nowcast0.23%

0 bp miss

Oct 24, 2025September 2025 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Oct 24, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input Oct 23, 2025

Official0.30%

Nowcast0.38%

8 bp high

Official0.22%

Nowcast0.26%

5 bp high

Sep 11, 2025August 2025 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Sep 11, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input Sep 10, 2025

Official0.35%

Nowcast0.30%

4 bp low

Official0.31%

Nowcast0.26%

5 bp low

Aug 12, 2025July 2025 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Aug 12, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input Aug 11, 2025

Official0.23%

Nowcast0.16%

7 bp low

Official0.31%

Nowcast0.25%

6 bp low

Jul 15, 2025June 2025 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Jul 15, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input Jul 14, 2025

Official0.25%

Nowcast0.25%

0 bp miss

Official0.23%

Nowcast0.23%

0 bp miss

Jun 11, 2025May 2025 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Jun 11, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input Jun 10, 2025

Official0.10%

Nowcast0.13%

3 bp high

Official0.13%

Nowcast0.23%

10 bp high

May 13, 2025April 2025 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff May 13, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input May 12, 2025

Official0.16%

Nowcast0.22%

6 bp high

Official0.24%

Nowcast0.23%

1 bp low

Apr 10, 2025March 2025 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Apr 10, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input Apr 9, 2025

Official0.03%

Nowcast0.03%

1 bp low

Official0.07%

Nowcast0.26%

19 bp high

Mar 12, 2025February 2025 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Mar 12, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input Mar 11, 2025

Official0.23%

Nowcast0.23%

1 bp high

Official0.25%

Nowcast0.28%

3 bp high

Feb 12, 2025January 2025 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Feb 12, 8:29 AM ESTLatest input Feb 11, 2025

Official0.43%

Nowcast0.24%

18 bp low

Official0.43%

Nowcast0.27%

16 bp low

Jan 15, 2025December 2024 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Jan 15, 8:29 AM ESTLatest input Jan 14, 2025

Official0.34%

Nowcast0.38%

4 bp high

Official0.19%

Nowcast0.27%

9 bp high

Dec 11, 2024November 2024 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Dec 11, 8:29 AM ESTLatest input Dec 10, 2024

Official0.28%

Nowcast0.26%

2 bp low

Official0.29%

Nowcast0.27%

1 bp low

Nov 13, 2024October 2024 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Nov 13, 8:29 AM ESTLatest input Nov 12, 2024

Official0.29%

Nowcast0.18%

10 bp low

Official0.31%

Nowcast0.26%

5 bp low

Oct 10, 2024September 2024 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Oct 10, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input Oct 9, 2024

Official0.21%

Nowcast0.11%

11 bp low

Official0.31%

Nowcast0.25%

6 bp low

Sep 11, 2024August 2024 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Sep 11, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input Sep 10, 2024

Official0.16%

Nowcast0.20%

5 bp high

Official0.25%

Nowcast0.24%

1 bp low

Aug 14, 2024July 2024 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Aug 14, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input Aug 13, 2024

Official0.17%

Nowcast0.24%

7 bp high

Official0.17%

Nowcast0.25%

7 bp high

Jul 11, 2024June 2024 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Jul 11, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input Jul 10, 2024

Official-0.04%

Nowcast0.07%

11 bp high

Official0.09%

Nowcast0.28%

18 bp high

Jun 12, 2024May 2024 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Jun 12, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input Jun 11, 2024

Official0.05%

Nowcast0.08%

4 bp high

Official0.14%

Nowcast0.31%

17 bp high

May 15, 2024April 2024 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff May 15, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input May 14, 2024

Official0.22%

Nowcast0.41%

20 bp high

Official0.27%

Nowcast0.33%

6 bp high

Apr 10, 2024March 2024 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Apr 10, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input Apr 9, 2024

Official0.44%

Nowcast0.34%

10 bp low

Official0.39%

Nowcast0.32%

7 bp low

Mar 12, 2024February 2024 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Mar 12, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input Mar 11, 2024

Official0.41%

Nowcast0.43%

2 bp high

Official0.40%

Nowcast0.31%

8 bp low

Feb 13, 2024January 2024 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Feb 13, 8:29 AM ESTLatest input Feb 12, 2024

Official0.31%

Nowcast0.13%

18 bp low

Official0.36%

Nowcast0.31%

5 bp low

Jan 11, 2024December 2023 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Jan 11, 8:29 AM ESTLatest input Jan 10, 2024

Official0.19%

Nowcast0.30%

11 bp high

Official0.26%

Nowcast0.32%

6 bp high

Dec 12, 2023November 2023 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Dec 12, 8:29 AM ESTLatest input Dec 11, 2023

Official0.15%

Nowcast-0.01%

16 bp low

Official0.30%

Nowcast0.32%

2 bp high

Nov 14, 2023October 2023 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Nov 14, 8:29 AM ESTLatest input Nov 13, 2023

Official0.14%

Nowcast0.07%

7 bp low

Official0.30%

Nowcast0.32%

2 bp high

Oct 12, 2023September 2023 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Oct 12, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input Oct 11, 2023

Official0.39%

Nowcast0.39%

0 bp miss

Official0.31%

Nowcast0.33%

2 bp high

Sep 13, 2023August 2023 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Sep 13, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input Sep 12, 2023

Official0.48%

Nowcast0.79%

31 bp high

Official0.20%

Nowcast0.35%

15 bp high

Aug 10, 2023July 2023 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Aug 10, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input Aug 9, 2023

Official0.20%

Nowcast0.41%

21 bp high

Official0.21%

Nowcast0.38%

18 bp high

Jul 12, 2023June 2023 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Jul 12, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input Jul 11, 2023

Official0.22%

Nowcast0.42%

20 bp high

Official0.22%

Nowcast0.42%

20 bp high

Jun 13, 2023May 2023 data

Pre-release reconstructionEvidence cutoff Jun 13, 8:29 AM EDTLatest input Jun 12, 2023

Official0.16%

Nowcast0.19%

3 bp high

Official0.36%

Nowcast0.45%

8 bp high